Sunday, November 4, 2007

Opportunity: Commercial mortgage industry companies

With the recent turmoil in sub prime market, many financial lenders are badly affected in their quarter's earning performance. CitiBank, Wamu, WellsFargo are all trading currently at their 52 week low due to overall negative mortgage industry environment. But if we look at it closely, the sub prime mainly affecting "Residential" market. What I mean is these are related individual with low income or bad credit bought a house with price they can't normally afford. With interest rate resetting, these borrowers 's payment is increasing dramatically, and because of their lower income, they can't afford it anymore. They walk away leaving the bank's bunch of bad loan in their account, badly hurting bank's business. However, it rarely happens in the "Commercial" market. Commercial here refers to projects like shopping mall, hospital building, office building, apartment, warehouse. Since the underwriting guideline in commercial market are much more tightened and require a significant high down payment from buyer to initatie the loan process, commercial lenders are seldom at risk for their mortgage not getting paid on time. Therefore I believe commercial lenders 's business is minimum, if any, affected by the sub prime. With recent drop overall mortgage companies in stock market, I'm betting the commercial lender are going to perform well. These are the lists of stock I'm betting on . Check it out here. The earning for these companies are coming out next week, it'd be interesting to see how they do in 3rd quarter and their projection of future business.

2 comments:

charlene said...

It is good to have a clear mind for seperating the commercial real estate and residential. However, when people get any bad news from RS, the overall market will be always affected, so even the commercial rs stocks also drop, it takes time for it to be recovered.

529pm said...

Charlene, I totally agree with you. Buying this kind of commerical real estate type of stock is for long term. Depends on your strategy, this type of stocks may not fit your interest.